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Forecasting When Nothing Will Ever Be Like Before
- The four worlds of forecasting
- The worlds and our knowledge of them
- The usual methods of forecasting
- Forecasting in uncharted areas
- When data are to be re-invented
- Forecasting and futurology
- Causal engines and forecasting
- Integrating shocks to come
Overview of the webinar
A commonplace to start with is that deterministic systems can be forecasted, and then all what is uncertain can be compared to dice throwing, and belongs to the world of stochastics. Give somebody a hammer, and everything will seem to him like a nail. However, sorry Mr Gauss, the world may be more complicated. Recalibrating old stochastic models may be patching an inappropriate paradigm.
We now have to forecast when the past offers less relevant experience. The cheap way, which bankers love, consists in Marie-Kondo-ing pre-pandemic data. On the other hand, the mentally blind will choose to ignore the shock and wipe the bad experience from our memories. However, none of these will lead us to any greener pasture. There must be better ways.
In this webinar, we go through a range of ways of worldly re-thinking that may be better suited to new situations. These start with an exploration of the limits of traditional forecasting. Then we examine a set of new methods.
Who should attend?
- Risk Methodology
- Credit risk, counterparty Risk
- Market Risk Management and Analytics
- Risk Internal Audit — Quantitative Analysis
- Regulatory and Economic Capital
- Basel III
- Regulation & Compliance
- Operational Units Managers
- Financial Institutions Advisory
- Bank Supervision and regulation
Why should you attend?
During the pandemic, this very day, and probably long thereafter, a lot is being asked about the ‘new normal’. We cannot ignore that history does rhyme, and that something similar to the Plague of the 1340s did happen from 2020 onwards. We can count, among the damage, as well as numerous poor souls, large chunks of GDPs, but also our old data made obsolete. Let us talk about surviving in this world of ‘new normal’.
Faculty - Mr.Fred Vacelet
Fred Vacelet is a Financial Risk Management Consultant with international expertise in Risk Management methodological frameworks. His experience spans some 20 years, advising banks, software houses and others on risk management. Fred holds various degrees, including from London Business School, with post-graduate studies at the Technische (then West)-Berlin and Keio (Japan) universities. A qualified Islamic Finance person (IFQ), he is a magazine author on risk management and Basel Accords, and a regular speaker at conferences.
The client list includes ABN Amro, Barclays, CDC Paris, Credit Suisse, DePfa, Deutsche Bank, a few City hedge funds, IBM Consulting (Banking and Finance), Sungard, Lloyds TSB, National Bank of Egypt, the UK Regulatory body (now PRA), Reuters, and numerous other institutions of various countries and sizes. Fred runs training courses and workshops with participants from various banks around the world.